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What are the opinions? When it will recover?

I think were going to see a lot more bank failures in 2009, at least when the free market gets its function back. Currently there are to much banks being propped up by the Federal Reserve and other government entities around the globe. This development does not contribute to competition as we once had.

When bad companies (banks, automakes, insurance companies etc) are being propped up with taxpayer dollars, then we get a situation where bad companies (which managements have failed by taking to much risk or simply bad strategies) are being supported with cheap money at the lowest rates. What basically happens is:
1. Money is being printed (first digitally increased and by the time it enters the real economy its will be printed) and this causes inflation.
2. Companies that receive TARP / TALF money are supported bygovernment and can't fail.
3. Companies that did have good management and used less risk are now paying a price for that. They still get competition from corporations that are 'to big to fail'. They now get competition from companies that should have gone bankrupt.
4. Banks (and other private investors) are looking at risk profiles. Companies that are government backed get easier money from private institutions than companies that are struggling in current markets where demand has fallen of a cliff. Lending money to these companies is more risky than to government backed companies.

To summarize:
Companies that were managed properly before the downturn get slashed in current market conditions. Demand dropped 50 percent in some markets and private capital is expensive. The level playing field is vanished due to government backed TARP and TALF funds.

The lesson to be learned is that government intervention in the free markets may never happen again. Unfortunately the problem lies with voters. People want action and jobs. So Obama and other politicians around the world can't sit and do nothing. They have to act for their constituents. They demand this while this is simply wrong.
Let the failed institutions fail and rebuild on companies with good management that did not use all these risky investment constructions to raise profits.

This is just one of the problems that will evolve in the current downturn. It simply props up values by printing money, causing inflation. It merely creates another bubble (bond market for instance). Perhaps even the demise of the dollar...when China pulls out (US Treasury bonds) a portion of its foreign dollar reserve capital and puts it to use in its domestic economy.

Oh and to answer your question: recovery is not the question yet. First the financial system needs overhaul. Fractional reserve banking will receive new regulations and oversight. Without this change, confidence will remain low and stock markets will remain highly volatile.
Market demand won't come back like it was before. Americans have borrowed to much. They need a decade of savings to get back on their feet and get manufacturing of products back at levels they once were. China will sell less to the States. Chimerica (China - America symbiotic connection) will remain but China will be more focused on domestic growth in the coming decade. Demand from the US will not come back that fast. This is a long lasting recession and could develop into a short deflation period as private capital is still being pulled out of the markets. Soon you will see prices fall a bit more. But eventually (from 2010 and beyond) inflation will rule the game in the States and other dollar denominated countries.

Nucleus wrote:What are the opinions? When it will recover?

Nuc. Your opinion is as good as anyone else. Right now I'm loving the feud between Jon Steward and Cramer. It really shows you how much these so called financial pundits really know.

Yeah the video rant from Jon is great. I have it on my website also.
"Maintaining Values" - cause CNBC was and still is worth sh@thole to me. Whoever listens to those pundits is crazy.

I'm glad Jon came out for it. Cramer was bashed again recently on his show. A must see guys.

RobbyG wrote:Yeah the video rant from Jon is great. I have it on my website also.
"Maintaining Values" - cause CNBC was and still is worth sh@thole to me. Whoever listens to those pundits is crazy.

I'm glad Jon came out for it. Cramer was bashed again recently on his show. A must see guys.

Cramer was on Jon's show a couple of days ago. Jon just let him have it. I've always loved Jon Stewart but now I'm even a bigger fan.

Have you seen the ratings for Jon's show?

The Daily Show is up 20% in viewers,
while Mad Money was down 24% !!!

CNBC is getting hit hardly. Thats why they let Cramer join Jon to settle the issue. Its costing big money now

will good news is appearing in Dubai I guess, just 2 days a go the announce the 10 billion support to its major companies plus the add from AD, I guess they are starting to pick up BUT will owe a big amount of money for a long time.

in over all I think it will take 2 years

The only reason Dubai grew was due to foreign investments from expats. Though the locals have a lot of money to build nice projects these nice projects are nothing without buyers or investors. There are 2 types of buyers:
1) Investors that are looking for a return on their investment
2) Rich people that have money to throw away

Option #3 is for expats living and working in Dubai. If the UAE doesn't have laws in place that make the expats feel at home and allow affordable living conditions then expats won't be buying any homes in Dubai. Before Dubai rebounds out of this crash their immigration laws and local costs of living will need to be revised. During recession times, no one wants to spend outrageous money on basic costs of living.

K-Dog wrote:

RobbyG wrote:Yeah the video rant from Jon is great. I have it on my website also.
"Maintaining Values" - cause CNBC was and still is worth sh@thole to me. Whoever listens to those pundits is crazy.

I'm glad Jon came out for it. Cramer was bashed again recently on his show. A must see guys.

Cramer was on Jon's show a couple of days ago. Jon just let him have it. I've always loved Jon Stewart but now I'm even a bigger fan.

View this: Cramer Bashing videos http://seekingalpha.com/article/125804- ... sb_popular