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ANY BANKER HERE? wondering how long the credit crunch will conitue?

No offense dear.......but do you honestly think you will get a satisfying answer ....Specially from bankers *no offense guys*...........everyone is hiding behind doors, praying things will get better and he/she won't be sacked!!

A few Merchant bankers hanging about

I here banker. I very english speak good.

Crunchy credit remain crunchy for a while. Like Kellog frosted flakes crunchy.

You me understand?

thank you.

On a serious note.

The market is not good and has a bleek outlook. The "crunch" will be here for a while. Don't believe anyone that says it wont.

Will dubai get over it: Yes
Will things ever be the same: Probably not

If anyone here could really answer your question, they would be out making Millions in the stock market and not posting on Dubai forums.

Cheers from the sands.

Stock market??? what stock market??? these days are gone.. gone long time ago..

Coming back to your question.. Yes we are in a credit crunch. a very horrible and horrific economic situation that is very new to all our generation. this is the worst economic slowdown since the late 1920s. and sadly to say it.. but this wont take a matter of year. to change. so people who are hoping that the H2 of 2009 things will get better. thats a no idea. Its a recession and economic slowdown.

It will take a couple of years for us to start getting back to see positive economic reports and indicators.

The truth is to mark out of a recession, you have to have 3 consecutive increasing growth rates. and we'll we dont expect to see that around the world, in maybe late 2010,2011...

Keep in mind that im talking globally, Dubai has its own cirucumstances. but if someone is telling you that we are still good and dubai is doing great.. he is trying to sell you something..

waelsalem wrote: if someone is telling you that we are still good and dubai is doing great.. he is trying to sell you something..

Like the Government of the UAE?

The rose tinted glasses are well and truly on!



Knight

Dubai Knight wrote:

Like the Government of the UAE?

The rose tinted glasses are well and truly on!



Knight

Couldn't say it any better myself!

dresden wrote:On a serious note.

The market is not good and has a bleek outlook. The "crunch" will be here for a while. Don't believe anyone that says it wont.

Will dubai get over it: Yes
Will things ever be the same: Probably not

If anyone here could really answer your question, they would be out making Millions in the stock market and not posting on Dubai forums.

Cheers from the sands.

Well I'm active in the stockmarket and posting on DF. Not making millions though, but I recouped 20 percent of my losses in 2 months with gold and silver junior stocks.
Short revival probably but no analyst in the last two weeks was able to tell me whether the market is going consistently up or down. Only thing that I know, is that gold and other precious metals are going to skyrocket when monetary velocity picks up again due to US inflation policy.

Apart from that. The world will remain on its butt in recession untill 2010. There is a lot more deleveraging going on, and balance sheets only released a minor portion of the writedowns since August of 2008.

Next up; US commercial real estate collapse and bond market bubble. Followed by the demise of the dollar currency (and AED pegged to it), so prices will rise eventually. As for now, the dollar is relatively strong, considering the debt burden of the US Treasury. Deleveraging makes sure that the worlds reserve currency (next to gold, arguably) is in relative strong demand. There aren't many asset classes left to invest in. Confidence is key.

brgds.

RobbyG wrote:Well I'm active in the stockmarket and posting on DF. Not making millions though, but I recouped 20 percent of my losses in 2 months with gold and silver junior stocks.
Short revival probably but no analyst in the last two weeks was able to tell me whether the market is going consistently up or down. Only thing that I know, is that gold and other precious metals are going to skyrocket when monetary velocity picks up again due to US inflation policy.

Apart from that. The world will remain on its butt in recession untill 2010. There is a lot more deleveraging going on, and balance sheets only released a minor portion of the writedowns since August of 2008.

Next up; US commercial real estate collapse and bond market bubble. Followed by the demise of the dollar currency (and AED pegged to it), so prices will rise eventually. As for now, the dollar is relatively strong, considering the debt burden of the US Treasury. Deleveraging makes sure that the worlds reserve currency (next to gold, arguably) is in relative strong demand. There aren't many asset classes left to invest in. Confidence is key.

brgds.

Good to hear you're recouping your losses. Not an easy time to be in the market.

I still stand by my previous statement regarding predicting the length of the crunch. Lots of speculation but no clear cut answer (although 2010 is what I was thinking as well). A lot of things will happen in the next couple of years; the fate of many economies will be affected.

Let's see what Barack's plan for the US is (lord knows they need one)... As you said yourself, "Confidence is key".

Cheers.

Nice to know there are more market enthusiasts around on this forum.
We might start an elaborate discussion one day about that

I must correct one thing I said. The world will be on its butt in recession till 2010 is too much prediction in my point of view. Better would be; at least until 2010. This one could last some longer than normal recessions we faced. Its actually unprecedented.

Cheers mate.

The credit crunch will soon be over as more and more governments are coming with bail outs plan.

bhomes wrote:The credit crunch will soon be over as more and more governments are coming with bail outs plan.

Inshallah

Things will definately be very clunky over the next 12 months and I agree the US$ is gonna take a bath as people cash in US treasury bonds (China etc).

However many governments are throwing in unprecendented stimulus packages together with underpinning financial markets. If this can push economies along for the next 12 months in my view things will turn around slowly in 2010.

The good thing about UAE is that it doesn't need to borrow for the above.

Are you sure about your last point?