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over supply, little demand (or rather demand that can afford the overpricing) = inevitable crash...

ill put my money on 5 years.


it is important to remember, current pricing is UNREALISTIC any which way you look at it.

ebonics wrote:over supply, little demand (or rather demand that can afford the overpricing) = inevitable crash...

ill put my money on 5 years.


it is important to remember, current pricing is UNREALISTIC any which way you look at it.

There are some slight issues with respect to your argument.

1. over supply and little demand - please point to a proper economical analysis which actually says this is the case. You have no real figures on what the supply and demand ratio is or how it is trending.

2. Unrealistic pricing. If it was unrealistic, they wouldn't be selling.

3. Anyone can say "in 5 years" and in fact, there is evidence that people said in 2007 the market will tank. It's 2008, and the market hasn't tanked.

So, whilst it's easy to be a doomsayer, the trends are pointing the wrong way to predict doom.

I am not ruling out a correction, in fact, I say it's a certainty and a period that Dubai needs to go through to sustain it's growth, but I am not so sure that the market will crash. It might, but then, I am sure steps are being taken to ensure it won't outright bottom out.

Ebonics.. I think its a bit over the top and a cynical view. If you look at the way u've mentioned , which country doesnt have its share of negative points?
Like I mentioned before, there are places in india where the night life finishes at 11:30 and people still put up with it and the population is on the raise, economic growth of the state is india's highest.
Speaking from an economic point of view.. I think, dubai's macroeconomic fundamentals are still very strong. To substantiate this view ,Dubai has a cash rich autocratic govt, Wouldnt have a problem with unemployment atleast for the foreseeable future due to a) some of the the strong industries b) the very reason that nationals are less in number and c) Govt's immigration policies. Add to that dubai's hidden fiscal policy through Saliks and other umpteen service provider companies owned and operated by Govt. Dubai has a no reason to worry at the moment of economic slow down.

On the contrary, the real issues are dubai's model being copied by other emirates and middle-eastern contries and even more .. dubai's own different construction biggies. The development model, whether it is freezone for all kind of activities or the massive constructions are all copied inside dubai , by diff emirates and even outside the nation. This eventually could be the reason for economic slowdown and real issues, and thats when the cost benefit comparison of dubai VS other options come in. But even in this context dubai will have an advantage even though other countries and emirates have the same geographical, historical things to offer, dubai's club culture and sincity model would offer a significant advantage over others.

I think dubai's economy feeds on its construction industry and like someone mentioned in the previous posts, since majority of the money that has gone in to the construction can stand invested for a long period, the price corrections may take some long time, but best hopes are dubai will have other means to support its economy by then(they already have, tourism, strong industrial zones, imp exp sector and a huge amount of money with people who cant spend it in their country due to various reasons ranging from instability, or taxation issues) and can still keep the prices at the same level.

hardly a cynical view, but rather realistic.


if they're selling, why are they uninhibited? the growth is sustained now, but its growing at a rediculous rate that infrastructure growth cannot match.

the population that can inhibit this growth is very small, and the growth isnt catering for the people that actually need a place to stay.

so you're left with apartments with about 20 individuals living in it, sharing the stupendous amount of rent asked by teh landlord...

unemployment will never be an issue - housing employees is an issue that is growing exponentially....

there is a huge development here called workers village, specifically made to house the workers building the country, full amenities including their own hospital, own mall, entertainment, a living city in its own right. housing in such a city is affordable in different grades - from your basic construction worker given a bunk, to the site supervisor, to the coordinators, to a full suite for the project managers of different sites..... something like that gets my tick of approval, its needed, there's no room in dubai for such a project, although it makes all the sense in the world.

Ebonics do u really think prices will rise for 5 years ?! Wow thats great,by then my investments would have done really well.By then the infrastructure will have caught up,the fantastic projects too,
then people will flock to dubai and make a price correction even less likely ! fantastic !
Also please can u tell me where property is not a risk,I'll sell my UK home and put all my money where u say as its a guaranteed winner!

By the way,friend of a friend brought a house in Sydney few years ago and now its worth less than what she paid.Mmm.

Alex1111 wrote:By the way,friend of a friend brought a house in Sydney few years ago and now its worth less than what she paid.Mmm.

Did she burn it down?

Seriously, get better friends, the current ones are feeding you bullshit.

Sorry if u didnt like what i wrote Ian but I am only saying what I was told.
Mmm,take it your an Aussie?

Alex1111 wrote:Sorry if u didnt like what i wrote Ian but I am only saying what I was told.
Mmm,take it your an Aussie?

It's not a question of whether I liked it or not, it's just a question of fact.

fyi - sydney has probably boomed in the last 2 years more than any other place in australia.. so yes your friend is feeding you complete horse sh*t.

ebonics wrote:fyi - sydney has probably boomed in the last 2 years more than any other place in australia.. so yes your friend is feeding you complete horse sh*t.

actually although sydney has not gone backwards, it has been the worst performer of the australian cities over the past year, which have all done very well.
Still, nothing compared to the gains in Dubai though.
The dubai market is only 5 years old, so if you are not predicting a crash until another 5 years, there is still a lot of gains to be made until then. It would therefore make sense to sell you place in Oz, transfer the money to dirhams before they revalue it, and buy a place in Dubai.

Ok,I'll pass it onto her that although she thinks her property is worth less,its actually worth more all on the back of your say so.That will make her feel a whole lot better.

Alex1111 wrote:Ok,I'll pass it onto her that although she thinks her property is worth less,its actually worth more all on the back of your say so.That will make her feel a whole lot better.

Well it's just a friend of a friend right?

In Australia lingo, a friend of a friend means 'bullshit' by the way, same as beginning a sentence with "true story..."

^ian^ wrote:

Alex1111 wrote:Ok,I'll pass it onto her that although she thinks her property is worth less,its actually worth more all on the back of your say so.That will make her feel a whole lot better.

Well it's just a friend of a friend right?

In Australia lingo, a friend of a friend means 'bullshit' by the way, same as beginning a sentence with "true story..."

If u want exact details u freaking dickhead,its a work colleague of my fiance!Her name is Julie,she works for emirates and lives
at Int City !
I'll get her freaking phone number so u can ring and freaking confirm !

Alex1111 wrote:

^ian^ wrote:

Alex1111 wrote:Ok,I'll pass it onto her that although she thinks her property is worth less,its actually worth more all on the back of your say so.That will make her feel a whole lot better.

Well it's just a friend of a friend right?

In Australia lingo, a friend of a friend means 'bullshit' by the way, same as beginning a sentence with "true story..."

If u want exact details u loving dickhead,its a work colleague of my fiance!Her name is Julie,she works for emirates and lives
at Int City !
I'll get her loving phone number so u can ring and loving confirm !

* sigh * don't get so emotional. You made some good points and now you've just tossed it all away.

Your right.Shouldnt let morons like u wind me up.Its the latin in me

ebonics wrote:there is a huge development here called workers village, specifically made to house the workers building the country, full amenities including their own hospital, own mall, entertainment, a living city in its own right. housing in such a city is affordable in different grades - from your basic construction worker given a bunk, to the site supervisor, to the coordinators, to a full suite for the project managers of different sites..... something like that gets my tick of approval, its needed, there's no room in dubai for such a project, although it makes all the sense in the world.

Obviously haven't been to International City lately...
No ebonics, just jesting. Agree with you on that one. Unfortunately with the construction workers only being deemed 'temporary', its never going to happen

Firstly, if you are looking at the time of the forum posts - chill - im in Zurich at the moment, so its 'only' 12.40am.

Ok.
Time to throw something else into the discussion...

One of the things that has came out of various conversations with people I know in construction in DXB is the issue of concrete fatigue.

Apparently (and if someone can correct me then they are welcomed), there is a 'fatigue index' or something of that nature, which demonstrates the likelyhood of rapid deteriation of concrete in an environment.

Apparently the UK has an rating of 6 (1 being low and 15 being the highest).
Dubai (apparently) has a rating of 13, given its humidity and heat etc, which is a similar rating to Hong Kong, who regularly knock down their skyscrapers after 25 years to rebuild them as they are deemed unsafe.

Yes I am the first to say there are a lot of 'apparently' in this post, but just thought it was worth throwing in to see what the facts were seeing as.. on this basis an apartment owner will have only just finished paying off his 25 year mortgage at 7.5% before watching it bulldozed. What then?

(Remember people, it's only a discussion. Share the love)

admog wrote:Yes I am the first to say there are a lot of 'apparently' in this post, but just thought it was worth throwing in to see what the facts were seeing as.. on this basis an apartment owner will have only just finished paying off his 25 year mortgage at 7.5% before watching it bulldozed. What then?

(Remember people, it's only a discussion. Share the love)

As the building ages, the value of the land increases and the value of the structure decreases to the point that in 25 - 30 years, the value of the land is at an absolute premium due to location, whilst the value of the structure is actually in the negatives because the cost of demolition and removal is factored in.

In these instances however, as has been seen historically, the owners do very well out of any sale for demolition/reconstruction, especially the last guy to sell

This is all dependent on some strata or apportioned title of the actual land the building sits on of course.

"In these instances however, as has been seen historically, the owners do very well out of any sale for demolition/reconstruction, especially the last guy to sell "

Mmm,like in the UK where a 'friend of a friend' is selling his flat worth
£280.000 for £500.000 to a developer who wants to know down his block and next doors and re-build.Some people just have all the luck.

Interesting debate going on guys..
However i firmly believe that the real estate market is bound to go down..
for 2 reasons
1. there is a limit to which the buyers are ready to pay.. at some point even though the investors are going to be bit cautious as the relative return is going to be much lower from now onwards

2. The recent financial turmoil in the world is going to have an impact on Dubai real estate market.. the foreign money inflow is definately going to slow down thus putting further downward pressure on the property prices

ebonics wrote:it is important to remember, current pricing is UNREALISTIC any which way you look at it.

if you can't afford the current pricing that does not mean its unrealistic.

at the moment Demand is more than supply... however, it can be true to have a stable pricing after most of the project construction is completed between the end of 2009 and 2010.

I work for a multinational 5 star hotel chain and they have 4 branches in Dubai at the moment... by 2010 we will have 11 hotels in total and one of a kind resort in festival city (soon to be announced)!!! so you can estimate how foreign business are investing in Dubai.

quatroporte wrote:

ebonics wrote:it is important to remember, current pricing is UNREALISTIC any which way you look at it.

if you can't afford the current pricing that does not mean its unrealistic.

at the moment Demand is more than supply... however, it can be true to have a stable pricing after most of the project construction is completed between the end of 2009 and 2010.

demand is more than supply, demand by who? and why?


go to the "professionals living in student like conditions" thread and read concord's post.

the fact that russian drug dealers, weaponry tycoons and pimps are buying up property at unrealistic prices, because rents are unrealistic... doesnt make your "demand is more than supply" claim realistic either.

ebonics wrote:the fact that russian drug dealers, weaponry tycoons and pimps are buying up property at unrealistic prices, because rents are unrealistic... doesnt make your "demand is more than supply" claim realistic either.

so Drug dealers and weaponry tycoons and pimps are the one responsible for the high prices in Dubai!!!!!

and where did you read that????

ebonics wrote:

quatroporte wrote:

ebonics wrote:it is important to remember, current pricing is UNREALISTIC any which way you look at it.

if you can't afford the current pricing that does not mean its unrealistic.

at the moment Demand is more than supply... however, it can be true to have a stable pricing after most of the project construction is completed between the end of 2009 and 2010.

demand is more than supply, demand by who? and why?


go to the "professionals living in student like conditions" thread and read concord's post.

the fact that russian drug dealers, weaponry tycoons and pimps are buying up property at unrealistic prices, because rents are unrealistic... doesnt make your "demand is more than supply" claim realistic either.

Are you saying that what happened in the Spanish Coast (Costa Del Sol, Marbella, Ibiza...et al) is now happening here in Dubai.....


Then lost of expats will be in for a major shock if thats the case....

Alex1111 wrote:If u want exact details u loving dickhead,its a work colleague of my fiance!Her name is [deleted],she works for emirates and lives
at Int City !
I'll get her loving phone number so u can ring and loving confirm !

Erm, question for moderators...

Are we allowed to publicly post names and numbers and other personal details of people?

I would be annoyed, to say the least, if a colleague's fiancee (or anyone) publicly posted my name and contact details on a forum, especially if I didn't know about it.

I deleted the name from the quoted text by the way.

bonk wrote:

Alex1111 wrote:If u want exact details u loving dickhead,its a work colleague of my fiance!Her name is [deleted],she works for emirates and lives
at Int City !
I'll get her loving phone number so u can ring and loving confirm !

Erm, question for moderators...

Are we allowed to publicly post names and numbers and other personal details of people?

I would be annoyed, to say the least, if a colleague's fiancee (or anyone) publicly posted my name and contact details on a forum, especially if I didn't know about it.

I deleted the name from the quoted text by the way.

You should not post personal details here on the open forum, if you specifically want to give someone information, thats what the PM is for.

sage & onion wrote:

bonk wrote:

Alex1111 wrote:If u want exact details u loving dickhead,its a work colleague of my fiance!Her name is [deleted],she works for emirates and lives
at Int City !
I'll get her loving phone number so u can ring and loving confirm !

Erm, question for moderators...

Are we allowed to publicly post names and numbers and other personal details of people?

I would be annoyed, to say the least, if a colleague's fiancee (or anyone) publicly posted my name and contact details on a forum, especially if I didn't know about it.

I deleted the name from the quoted text by the way.

You should not post personal details here on the open forum, if you specifically want to give someone information, thats what the PM is for.

Of course I have no intention of posting anyones personal details.
I don't like being called a liar but shouldn't have allowed myself to be wound up by a moron.

Alex1111 wrote:Of course I have no intention of posting anyones personal details.

Then why did you? Name, job and home location sound like personal details to me.

Alex1111 wrote:its a work colleague of my fiance!Her name is [deleted],she works for emirates and lives
at Int City !

Alex1111 wrote:I don't like being called a liar but shouldn't have allowed myself to be wound up by a moron.

Then what would you call someone who posts personal details and says they have no intention of posting personal details?

Sounds like you have very little self-control if a moron can wind you up. I suppose you go completely beserk if someone clever winds you up then.

Bonk your a complete moron.There are hundreds of julies in dubai,and I expect many many work for emirates.Now get lost and let people
on here get back to the subject of property.

My property in Sydney dropped by about $30K in 05-06 and has just now come back to what I paid for it.
If you aren't on the water or beaches in Sydney you get punished with market plateaus or falls.
One for you Alex1111