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Long term, you can NEVER lose in property (Barring a war or natural disaster).

Short or medium term - Yes you can do your @ss very damn quickly trying to predict a boom or bust.

Maybe it will go up, maybe it will come crashing down.

All I know is that back in Dec2005 people were telling me not to buy (which may have included Arnie - I can't remember so if this is incorrect, please accept my apologises). Had I listened I wouldn't be have gained approx 50% plus unreliased P&L.

does anyone know the average for sq m in singapore?

an interesting fact in Gulf News on their properties section. Listed are 10,052 properties for sale or rent in Dubai

10,000 !!!!! obviously there is a very long queue to buy or rent all these properties

http://www.gnads4u.com/properties

I'm with ya arnie!

onetickin wrote:Maybe it will go up, maybe it will come crashing down.

All I know is that back in Dec2005 people were telling me not to buy (which may have included Arnie - I can't remember so if this is incorrect, please accept my apologises). Had I listened I wouldn't be have gained approx 50% plus unreliased P&L.

I was in the buy camp then mate, but i started to change my opinion mid 2006 and i'm sticking to it now until further notice, I started to see the warning signs early 2006 though. However my prediction for "late 2007" was spot on 2 years ago . You will also note my prediction for people back then buying off plan in 2006 completing in 2009 are equally at risk.

in fact i wrote this on 6th January 2006

However, in saying this as in all property market booms what goes up will always eventually come down. I predict the market will slow down in late 2007, when the number of properties released/completed will flood the market with "re-sales". I also believe eventually supply will outstrip demand, it will be then that rents will in all probability drop substantially as investors will be competeing to rent out their properties.

I think there is very little time left now to make any money with property in Dubai , as i think we have passed the time between purchasing off plan and completion. People considering buying now for "investment" may possibly be dissappointed.

Interestingly enough Chocs who is saying in this thread "buy buy buy Sports City blah blah" was most vocal back then in saying we were all fools buying property. Read for yourself here:

http://www.dubaiforums.com/viewtopic.ph ... c&start=15

Arnie stop talking. Nobody wants to read over and over again how lucky you were.

arniegang wrote:

onetickin wrote:Maybe it will go up, maybe it will come crashing down.

All I know is that back in Dec2005 people were telling me not to buy (which may have included Arnie - I can't remember so if this is incorrect, please accept my apologises). Had I listened I wouldn't be have gained approx 50% plus unreliased P&L.

I was in the buy camp then mate, but i started to change my opinion mid 2006 and i'm sticking to it now until further notice, I started to see the warning signs early 2006 though. However my prediction for "late 2007" was spot on 2 years ago . You will also note my prediction for people back then buying off plan in 2006 completing in 2009 are equally at risk.

in fact i wrote this on 6th January 2006

However, in saying this as in all property market booms what goes up will always eventually come down. I predict the market will slow down in late 2007, when the number of properties released/completed will flood the market with "re-sales". I also believe eventually supply will outstrip demand, it will be then that rents will in all probability drop substantially as investors will be competeing to rent out their properties.

I think there is very little time left now to make any money with property in Dubai , as i think we have passed the time between purchasing off plan and completion. People considering buying now for "investment" may possibly be dissappointed.

Interestingly enough Chocs who is saying in this thread "buy buy buy Sports City blah blah" was most vocal back then in saying we were all fools buying property. Read for yourself here:

http://www.dubaiforums.com/viewtopic.ph ... c&start=15

oh arnie day putar u want to advice me when i should consider on buying in UAE?? cos i am thinking but since i read your post have changed my mind. cos honestly speaking 1 million dhs for 1 bedroom is a bloody not so funny joke. plz advice

^ian^ wrote:Arnie stop talking. Nobody wants to read over and over again how lucky you were.

on the contrary Ian, luck had nothing to do with it, as i have been saying all along

Whoever didn't make money in the UK market over the last 10-15years must be a idiot.

Wait a minute, that makes me an idiot. I must have been the only person to loose, so don't listen to me.

arniegang wrote:an interesting fact in Gulf News on their properties section. Listed are 10,052 properties for sale or rent in Dubai

10,000 !!!!! obviously there is a very long queue to buy or rent all these properties

http://www.gnads4u.com/properties

thats just a sign of a healthy market. An apartment i bought just completed, and i put it out for rent. not only did it rent out in two days .. the first people who came to see it took it. We are still far away from a position where supply exceeds demand.

[quote="MaaaD
thats just a sign of a healthy market. An apartment i bought just completed, and i put it out for rent. not only did it rent out in two days .. the first people who came to see it took it. We are still far away from a position where supply exceeds demand.[/quote]

Really

so an unhealthy market is ???????????

arniegang wrote:[quote="MaaaD
thats just a sign of a healthy market. An apartment i bought just completed, and i put it out for rent. not only did it rent out in two days .. the first people who came to see it took it. We are still far away from a position where supply exceeds demand.

Really

so an unhealthy market is ???????????[/quote]

We have villas in Mirdiff and each year we see price increase on rentals by 15% and we have none empty. One guy asked my father if he could evict current tenants and he would pay 20% more. My father is a good honest man though and rejected the offer.

I am thinking of buying apartments in new JBR although this is western area only it will be good rental money. I think market is still very strong and growing.

GULF NEWS -
House prices in UAE to climb
By Andrew Shouler, Deputy Managing Editor
Published: February 27, 2008, 00:05


Dubai: The escalation of material prices and wages will drive construction costs and help propel house prices higher in the UAE, according to a research note by local brokerage EFG-Hermes.

With pending supply being delayed, but demand for property buoyant, developers are easily able to pass on higher costs to potential off-plan buyers, the note says.

Meanwhile, with local interest rates having dropped, real estate demand has been stimulated.

"Taking both cost and demand pressures together, we now believe that both off-plan and secondary market prices will rise significantly higher in 2008 than our previous expectation of 5-10 per cent." Analyst Sana Kapadia declined to give revised figures for the outcome, but agreed that the risks for investors would also rise.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


"The persistence of labour shortages, strong demand, and the mandatory adoption of green building codes, health and life insurance are likely to raise costs even further."

Lower interest rates also give the fillip of cheaper finance, as well as the incentive of greater reward in the face of meagre returns on deposits.

As UAE interbank rates have fallen from 4.9 per cent last November to 2.8 per cent today, mortgage rates have declined from 7.9 per cent to 5.8 per cent.

Monica Malek, economist for EFG-Hermes, made it plain that prospective inflation applies to prices rather than rental costs, which are subject instead to separate forces of supply and demand.

"In fact, we expect rental inflation to be negative in Dubai in 2008. Anecdotally, because of negative real interest rates, people are buying houses for investment purposes [which] adds to rental supply. For the UAE as a whole, consumer price inflation will nevertheless be driven by rental inflation in Abu Dhabi, which may be in the region of 30 per cent this year."

The report's assessment is in line with work by other analysts.

"A combination of strong demographic growth, negative real rates and increasingly available mortgage finance will boost demand at the same time as delivery delays look likely to moderate growth in supply," said Simon Williams, Chief Economist, HSBC Middle East.

"Taken together, those factors point to a very supportive [house] price environment."

Some of my favourite quotes:

'Whatever can never continue to rise will eventually fall'

'This time it is different'

and

'Turkeys never vote for Christmas'


I don't gamble and am wary of debt - that means that I am just an interested observer in the current property market. Currently rents are lower than a mortgage and associated ownership costs, so it doesn't make sense for me to expose myself to potential falls in capital if I were to buy.

A concerning stat for me was the recent announcement of a >30% increase in debt in Dubai last year.

Good luck to those that have made money and continue to make money on the property market here.

Cheers,
Shafique

JBR rents are much cheaper presently than what peole are trying to flog them for - I haven't arrived in Dubai yet but I think I'll rent rather than buy now which was differnt to my view just 2 months ago!

MaaaD wrote:does anyone know the average for sq m in singapore?

The average in Singapore at the surbuban areas is about Dhs 2,000 - 3,000 per sqft. At its outside core region, they are around Dhs 4,000 - 5,000 and inside core region is Dhs 7,500 upwards.

By comparison to other satellite cities like Hong Kong, Singapore, New York and London, Dubai is still very cheap. By the look of things going on here over the past few years, Dubai looks determined to get their act together. They have the political will and financial muscle, especially with their accumulated savings over the past decades. This is evident in their eagerness to invest in banks and companies in developed countries around US, Europe and Asia with their SWF. What else can Dubai and their neighbours do with all these US$ but to spend domestically and internationally which incidentally is causing the West to shake in their pants?

The chances of prices falling over the next 5 years is less likely than prices rising. If anyone can afford to invest in properties now in Dubai, my advise is to get at least one for a foothold here because if Dubai does become a hit like the rest of the satellite cities, there will be no way the middle-working class can afford a prime property within a lifetime.

Thanks Gene you read my mind

And for all of you who think 7,500 dhs per sq ft is a lot. There are units in the Burj Dubai which are going for 8,000 dhs per sq ft.

I agree Dubai prices in comparison to other cities are still cheap but what makes a 'satellite ' city? Also you have to consider the oversupply issue.Properties to house 3m at Waterfront,1m Palm Diera,850 buildings around Jebel Ali Airport,then all the other many properties around Dubai.The idea is build and they will come,is this realistic?London,Hong Kong etc developed slowly,not in 10/15 years.

GULF NEWS -
Dubai faces a shortage of both residential and commercial space.
Based on the number of residence visas issued, the city's population of 1.67 million is growing by 300,000 a year. If this pace continues, the population is projected to grow to 4.1 million by 2015.
If construction delays are "at a minimal," 170,000 new residential units will be available between 2008 and 2010, according to CB Richard Ellis.
The demand for residential units is estimated at 70,000 per year against a delivery of 57,000 units.
Maclean said Dubai's property sector growth is sustainable if economic growth continues and expatriate numbers continue to rise at current levels.
But competition from construction within the region and slow infrastructure growth could undermine the city's property sector, he added.

Alex1111 wrote:GULF NEWS -
Dubai faces a shortage of both residential and commercial space.
Based on the number of residence visas issued, the city's population of 1.67 million is growing by 300,000 a year. If this pace continues, the population is projected to grow to 4.1 million by 2015.
If construction delays are "at a minimal," 170,000 new residential units will be available between 2008 and 2010, according to CB Richard Ellis.
The demand for residential units is estimated at 70,000 per year against a delivery of 57,000 units.
Maclean said Dubai's property sector growth is sustainable if economic growth continues and expatriate numbers continue to rise at current levels.
But competition from construction within the region and slow infrastructure growth could undermine the city's property sector, he added.

this is a model of an article that is designed to fool a moron.

the 300,000 expatriates a year would not afford any of the units mentioned above to rent or buy for that matter, maybe a whole 25,000 would..

the rest are crammed into 2 bedroom units each with 10-15 bachelors living in them..

way to twist statistics to give people false sense that the property market is flying, buy buy buy...

I've just read through all 8 pages and i am still none the wiser as to whether to buy or carry on renting. On the one hand renting is flexible and slightly cheaper than buying, but then again by buying i would have an assest that might have the ability to appreciate. My main concern is that at present i have no idea how long i'm gonna be staying in dubai for, could be 18 months could be 10 years i just don't know. Alot of freinds have recently bought into discovery gardens as they think its gonna appreciate well over the next 24 months ish.

ebonics wrote:

Alex1111 wrote:GULF NEWS -
Dubai faces a shortage of both residential and commercial space.
Based on the number of residence visas issued, the city's population of 1.67 million is growing by 300,000 a year. If this pace continues, the population is projected to grow to 4.1 million by 2015.
If construction delays are "at a minimal," 170,000 new residential units will be available between 2008 and 2010, according to CB Richard Ellis.
The demand for residential units is estimated at 70,000 per year against a delivery of 57,000 units.
Maclean said Dubai's property sector growth is sustainable if economic growth continues and expatriate numbers continue to rise at current levels.
But competition from construction within the region and slow infrastructure growth could undermine the city's property sector, he added.

this is a model of an article that is designed to fool a moron.

the 300,000 expatriates a year would not afford any of the units mentioned above to rent or buy for that matter, maybe a whole 25,000 would..

the rest are crammed into 2 bedroom units each with 10-15 bachelors living in them..

way to twist statistics to give people false sense that the property market is flying, buy buy buy...

25k

you are being very generous

DDastardly buy dont rent.Your still in time to see your property value go up.Late delivery of units will keep prices going up for at least 2 years.Reports from Investment Banks prices will keep rising till 2012.If u hang onto it for 6years plus your'll go through the predicted price corrections which will then rise again.Dubai is on the way to become a great city and once the metro is complete and many of the amazing projects it will be a huge magnet for people to come and live.If 300.000
are coming now when Dubai is a constuction site and traffic is a nightmare think of how many will come when all thats in the past.

Alex1111 wrote:DDastardly buy dont rent.Your still in time to see your property value go up.Late delivery of units will keep prices going up for at least 2 years.Reports from Investment Banks prices will keep rising till 2012.If u hang onto it for 6years plus your'll go through the predicted price corrections which will then rise again.Dubai is on the way to become a great city and once the metro is complete and many of the amazing projects it will be a huge magnet for people to come and live.If 300.000
are coming now when Dubai is a constuction site and traffic is a nightmare think of how many will come when all thats in the past.

I am just making sure that your last post was an ironic joke.. please confirm it was...

No but u are

Alex1111 wrote:are coming now when Dubai is a constuction site and traffic is a nightmare think of how many will come when all thats in the past.

past?

oh so the roads will expand by heat?

Was involved in casual discussion on the weekend over a few beers involving people from several disciplines of the development cycle (from architects, to project managers, finance people and sales and marketing).

Nobody thinks the prices are going to go anywhere but up for the next 2 to 3 years.

ok so they're going up, but then what happens?


it will continue to go up

it will continue to not get bought due to the lack of people affording them

it will continue to go up

it will continue getting rammed with people that its rendered un-liveable

it will continue to go up


and then it will crash like a tonne of bricks.




if you buy an apartment for X million, dont think its going to rise up by Xmillion + 1/4 million in a hurry..


if you want to double your money, start buying in other emirates, dubai's done and dusted....

ebonics wrote:ok so they're going up, but then what happens?


it will continue to go up

Eventually it will hit a ceiling and will almost certainly plateau... nobody is sure when exactly it will hit this point though.

It really depends on what you want to buy a property for though.

If you want to buy to make money quick, then there is still some margin, albeit small, left in the market for flipping.

If you want to buy as a long term investment then you have committed to yourself to ride out any potential downturn in the market.

If you want to buy to avoid paying rent, now might not be the best time. Whilst a mortgage might seem cheaper, there's the hidden costs you need to factor in. A few years ago I came across quite a good spreadsheet that could tell you whether you were in front or behind on a property purchase when taken all the costs of ownership into account versus renting. You'd be surprised just how marginal the difference is. Wish I still had it but could easily recreate it I suppose.

The first category (the flippers) are the ones pushing the prices up too I might add, not the developers. The marketing in a lot of cases is still setting the trading points.