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Why all of the negativity regarding sports city?
The sports city apartments are not trying to compete with the Marina, JLT or JBR. If they were, they wouldn't be a lot cheaper.
How about Bawadi which is ?, 95 hotels, 100,000 rooms. Will it be a white elephant too?

I think Al Bawadi is 31 hotels.Also they will be providing lots of entertainment and will be right next to Dubailand(not that Dubailand will ever get even a quarter finished I guess)

Go to this website and check it out, also note that Al Bawadi is a part of Dubailand

http://www.dubailand.ae/#

Chocs, I have to agree with Arnie on this one. The hotel/condo scheme only works for the developer. The buyers end up with a hotel room they can use 30 days a year. It is considered one of the worst ppty investments in Canada, anyway. there are also 1/10th share, quarter share, etc. They are a joke, the fees ALWAYS end up over 40%. All the owners are absentee, so the management company does what they want. Also, the rules are always changed and fees increase over time. You will never get enough revenue to service the debt. It all looks great on paper, but watch out!

Arabian Ranches is skyrocketting right now. Sports city is beside Arabian Ranches and will most likely follow. You need to drive between them both to get to Bawadi. What am I missing?

The Prenmier League in the UK are interested in many playing one round of league games all over the world.Dubai was mentioned as one of those places.Sports City would be ideal.However we are only talking about one game.Many if it happened and went well other leagues,Seria A and La Liga would follow.I can see many european teams playing there around Christmas time when alot of them break for 3-6weeks as did the Milan teams recently.

The Dubai government just gave a donation to the IOC and the president stated that it would be possible to move the date of the olympics to suit Dubai. He was also impressed with SPORTS CITY. So it looks like Dubai is gearing up for a 2020 bid.

Yes, 2020 would be a good year no?

Hi Guys,

Now this is how it works in short term, and I am only going to talk about short term and if you like the theory than I will explain the Long Term this equation is a guide to short term investment. In universities and schools of Economics they will charge you a lot of money to tell you this. If any of you have a question more than welcome to ask.

x = i/r

where x = return on investment
i = investment
r = rental income

Being in Real Estate myself I can say that x should always be equal to 0.085 or in other words should be 8.5%.

Now just to give you an example:

If you buy a property for AED 600,000 and you get AED 60,000 this means x = 0.1 or 10%

this means x is high. So there can only be two things that either the property price should goes up to AED 705882. In other words i should increase 705882 and x goes back to 0.085.

Now you can also ask me 'r' can also go down so 'x' will go down as well but you have to remember that 'r' is driven by the market demand. this means that the rent is driven by the market so we have less control over it.

If you do not understand the above i am just saying if the rental income is less than 8.5% of your investment then do not buy that property. On the other hand if the rent is more than 8.5% than buy the property and sell it when the rental income becomes 8.5% and look for a property where the rental income is more than 8.5%.

If you need any more advise my real estate is in International City (BA). also remeber the above theory is for ready properties. Also if you ever talk to someone about the above theory please mention my name Imran from Black Arrow

regards

I've said it once and I will say it again... if anyone offers you advice like they 'know' the market... run and run fast.

Any correct predictions for the next 12 months will be pot luck.

^ian^ wrote:I've said it once and I will say it again... if anyone offers you advice like they 'know' the market... run and run fast.

Any correct predictions for the next 12 months will be pot luck.

The market will grow. 1.2 Million people will move to the UAE this year under the pantronage of our great rulers.

Both Abu dhabi and Dubai in race to become the greatest city on the planet.

ssemo wrote:x = i/r

where x = return on investment
i = investment
r = rental income

Try x = r/i .

well, sure no one can predict the market but I can definitely crash the market.

just have to invite my Iranian friend and ask him to grow his beard and shoot a water pistol, what the heck , he just needs to fart loud in the public and the tourism rate would drop by 50 percent.

Sheikhmo wrote:

^ian^ wrote:I've said it once and I will say it again... if anyone offers you advice like they 'know' the market... run and run fast.

Any correct predictions for the next 12 months will be pot luck.

The market will grow. 1.2 Million people will move to the UAE this year under the pantronage of our great rulers.

Both Abu dhabi and Dubai in race to become the greatest city on the planet.

It will be a great international city once we wrestle control off the emiratii's...

^ian^ wrote:I've said it once and I will say it again... if anyone offers you advice like they 'know' the market... run and run fast.

Any correct predictions for the next 12 months will be pot luck.

For once I have to agree, it is impossible to predict what will happen in this market.

I disagree, Sage and Ian. Dubai cannot sustain the current rate of completions/occupancy.

If this were untrue, then tell us why Damac is offering a BMW with ever appt and a Bentley for their penthouses. If they are selling like hotcakes as they would have us believe, then why the incentives ??

The developers know the market conditions well and they are offloading properties with incentives while there is still a few sparks left in the housing market and using incentives to keep the market artificially moving.

When developers start running scared so should everyone else. The problem is there is a reluctance to accept this and people are still holding onto the dream to make buckets of cash - it just aint gonna happen now.

Emaar are now releasing 2million + Dhs 1 bed appartments. Calculate what the purchaser needs to rent that for to return 8% profit after paying agents and maintenance fees. And yet we here agents out there telling us it will grow in value - i think not.

Most expats cant afford to rent their own appt/villa without sharing the cost at the last 2 years highs, let alone the ridiculous future value predictions of agents.

Sheikhmo wrote:

^ian^ wrote:I've said it once and I will say it again... if anyone offers you advice like they 'know' the market... run and run fast.

Any correct predictions for the next 12 months will be pot luck.

The market will grow. 1.2 Million people will move to the UAE this year under the pantronage of our great rulers.

Both Abu dhabi and Dubai in race to become the greatest city on the planet.

This prediction was made by Bob the Builder and his cat Pilchard.

1.2 million this year - yeaaaa right

arniegang wrote:I disagree, Sage and Ian. Dubai cannot sustain the current rate of completions/occupancy.

in the long run, you're probably right, but predicting as to when it will actually peak has proved a challenge and many a subsequent embarrassment for economists, even those in the employ of the government.

If this were untrue, then tell us why Damac is offering a BMW with ever appt and a Bentley for their penthouses. If they are selling like hotcakes as they would have us believe, then why the incentives ??

They have been doing this for quite a few years now. It's hardly an incentive anyway when you do the math, but it used to be Jaguars, and it was something else before that too.

They also gave away the chance to win a jet or one of four hot supercars. It's not new for Damac.

The developers know the market conditions well and they are offloading properties with incentives while there is still a few sparks left in the housing market and using incentives to keep the market artificially moving.

I can assure you without question, the developers know just as much about the economic future of this market as every other person who has an opinion. Within the office of His Highness himself, regularly they joke about the last bold prediction of the Dubai crash as the supposed date whizzes by (or so I am told).

The bottom line is, this thing is going to be produced, built, marketed and hyped to the bitter end, and there is work being done (supposedly) to ensure that bitter end itself is a moving target.

Dubai has really and seriously exceeded my disbelief as to how much a city can just create growth out of nothing. It's Keynesian economic meets marketing hype and it seems to be working.

When developers start running scared so should everyone else. The problem is there is a reluctance to accept this and people are still holding onto the dream to make buckets of cash - it just aint gonna happen now.

If you think Developers are running scared then you will be amazed what some of the projects upcoming will be. Your eyes will literally pop out of your head.

Emaar are now releasing 2million + Dhs 1 bed appartments. Calculate what the purchaser needs to rent that for to return 8% profit after paying agents and maintenance fees. And yet we here agents out there telling us it will grow in value - i think not.

I wonder the same thing... and yet they keep selling.

Most expats cant afford to rent their own appt/villa without sharing the cost at the last 2 years highs, let alone the ridiculous future value predictions of agents.

To be fair, most expats baulk at the idea of spending any more than 20% of their income on rent, which is funny because back in 'Ol Blighty or wherever they came from they were spending more than that.

If you're going to take the high salary, then you have to take the bad with the good. If you don't think the salary is that great, then stay at home. I'm not jumping on the 'if you don't like it leave' bandwagon, moreso I am saying do the math, and if the math don't work, don't come. If you can get a better deal elsewhere, take it.

To be honest, if more people actually followed through on their noise instead of just making it, perhaps you would see the supply and demand curve shift back towards the buyers favour.

i was thinking of investing but seriously the prices have gone nuts :S.

1 bedroom for one million :S i might as well get a 3 or 4 bedroom appartment in Sharjah or Ajman. or even a villa in Shj or even an older villa in Dubai.

but does anyone here know a really good real estate agent??

soz triple post

soz triple post

^ian^ wrote:

arniegang wrote:I disagree, Sage and Ian. Dubai cannot sustain the current rate of completions/occupancy.

in the long run, you're probably right, but predicting as to when it will actually peak has proved a challenge and many a subsequent embarrassment for economists, even those in the employ of the government.

If this were untrue, then tell us why Damac is offering a BMW with ever appt and a Bentley for their penthouses. If they are selling like hotcakes as they would have us believe, then why the incentives ??

They have been doing this for quite a few years now. It's hardly an incentive anyway when you do the math, but it used to be Jaguars, and it was something else before that too.

They also gave away the chance to win a jet or one of four hot supercars. It's not new for Damac.

The developers know the market conditions well and they are offloading properties with incentives while there is still a few sparks left in the housing market and using incentives to keep the market artificially moving.

I can assure you without question, the developers know just as much about the economic future of this market as every other person who has an opinion. Within the office of His Highness himself, regularly they joke about the last bold prediction of the Dubai crash as the supposed date whizzes by (or so I am told).

The bottom line is, this thing is going to be produced, built, marketed and hyped to the bitter end, and there is work being done (supposedly) to ensure that bitter end itself is a moving target.

Dubai has really and seriously exceeded my disbelief as to how much a city can just create growth out of nothing. It's Keynesian economic meets marketing hype and it seems to be working.

When developers start running scared so should everyone else. The problem is there is a reluctance to accept this and people are still holding onto the dream to make buckets of cash - it just aint gonna happen now.

If you think Developers are running scared then you will be amazed what some of the projects upcoming will be. Your eyes will literally pop out of your head.

Emaar are now releasing 2million + Dhs 1 bed appartments. Calculate what the purchaser needs to rent that for to return 8% profit after paying agents and maintenance fees. And yet we here agents out there telling us it will grow in value - i think not.

I wonder the same thing... and yet they keep selling.

Most expats cant afford to rent their own appt/villa without sharing the cost at the last 2 years highs, let alone the ridiculous future value predictions of agents.

To be fair, most expats baulk at the idea of spending any more than 20% of their income on rent, which is funny because back in 'Ol Blighty or wherever they came from they were spending more than that.

If you're going to take the high salary, then you have to take the bad with the good. If you don't think the salary is that great, then stay at home. I'm not jumping on the 'if you don't like it leave' bandwagon, moreso I am saying do the math, and if the math don't work, don't come. If you can get a better deal elsewhere, take it.

To be honest, if more people actually followed through on their noise instead of just making it, perhaps you would see the supply and demand curve shift back towards the buyers favour.

First for a long time Ian, i practically agree with everything you say. The only caveat and possible disagreement with you is on time scales.

However those of us who are true and experienced speculators make their profits on hunches, risk, luck and the ability to read or predict the market.

The crash or whatever one calls it isn't iminent, not by a long way. IMHO the road from where the serious problems started around a year/18 months ago. When property fever really really took off in Dubai. Since then the market has only moved one way -upwards.

The problem is at that point very few of us actually owned completed properties and everyone wanted a piece of the action. As in all property markets it spiralled upwards driven by demand. Sadly, those that are riding this temporary wave of euphoria havent actually completed or own any appartments.

This year 65000 units are expected to come to completion for those that got on before the frenzy of the last 18 months. Around 80% of these are going to come back on the market as sales or rentals. There is not enough demand to service these completions.This will trigger the reverse in a downward spirral, so that by those completions in the next 24/36 months will be worth less than the contracted price demanded in the "frenzy" period.

The difference between someone like me and the newbie wanna get rich quick brigade is to have the ability to read the long term signs that will lead the market on the road to destruction.

Dubai is no different to any other established market. I was buying and selling off plan in the mid 80's when i could complete and sell the same day because the market was driven and collapsed by the ending of "tax relief" on mortgages. Its not rocket science, its just knowing when to see the signs saying "good time - bad time" and following basic rules.

In 2002 i remember being offered a Amlak mortgage through Emaar @ 5%. Look at the rate now its a joke, and is the reversal of the general trend througout Europe, US Aus etc where the trend has been that rates are stable with a bias downwards with inflation to match, the Dubai market has done the exact opposite. Not good signs for a stable infrastructure or ecomomy.

When the market does start to turn, i'll bet you all those who havent completed or has just completed start to run like rats, flooding the market. I havent even mentioned when the banks start running scared having lent on inflated purchases and people starting to default on mortgages that have a balance higher than the property is worth. Dubai will suddenly learn what negative equity is. Dubai will learn about "repossesions" too.

Theres gonna be some serious very serious casualties but like you rightly say Ian, no one know when, but the warning signs are all there

The only thing I said was that it is impossible to predict, the same way that back in 2000/2001 nobody was able to predict what would be happening here today. One year ago everyone was predicting that prices will fall especially when JBR comes on the rental market, well its here, and the prices are not falling they are still rising.

As far as I am concerned DAMAC (Don't Anticipate Making A Cent) cannot be used as a benchmark for the market.

sage & onion wrote:The only thing I said was that it is impossible to predict, the same way that back in 2000/2001 nobody was able to predict what would be happening here today. One year ago everyone was predicting that prices will fall especially when JBR comes on the rental market, well its here, and the prices are not falling they are still rising.

As far as I am concerned DAMAC (Don't Anticipate Making A Cent) cannot be used as a benchmark for the market.

Sage, are you saying that DAMAC is a rip-job? I just went to their showroom. They don't have much coming up till 2009. Would you think that purchasing for a place to live (vs. renting) is a good idea. I know that investing for rentals is a slim shot, but everyone needs somewhere to live. At these rates, I'll be paying 500k in rent in the coming years. I was thinking that if the prices NEVER go up, the worst I could do is break even when I sell, rather than wasting that cash on rent? Our lease is up mid-Nov. so I have been looking for places available then (or now).

I have noticed that the pricing can vary wildly in the same community/building. There are a lot of people just trying the market, and you can spot those that are keen to sell, as they are usually "realistically" priced several hundred thousand below the others.

DAMAC in particular claims better finishings, etc. , but they charge 15 AED per square foot per annum maintenance fees. That is just crazy, I don't care how nice the gardens are. Sounds like a cash-grab to me.

arniegang wrote:If this were untrue, then tell us why Damac is offering a BMW with ever appt and a Bentley for their penthouses.

Because Damac doesn't actually build anything, they just talk about it .

sage & onion wrote:The only thing I said was that it is impossible to predict, the same way that back in 2000/2001 nobody was able to predict what would be happening here today. One year ago everyone was predicting that prices will fall especially when JBR comes on the rental market, well its here, and the prices are not falling they are still rising.

As far as I am concerned DAMAC (Don't Anticipate Making A Cent) cannot be used as a benchmark for the market.

I still disagree with you Sage - JBR has affected the marina area prices and itself. Prices there in my opinion has at best, leveled off and at worst have fallen or are open to serious negotiation downwards by potential purchasers.

In Dec i spent 3 days viewing over there and every single one i looked at the owner was prepared to seriously negotiate. THe problem there is the basis of my view in that, as soon as supply exceeds demand (like JBR) then the purchaser has more power and choice.

THere has been a 16th Floor 2 bed veranda appartment for sale in JBR since completion, nice appartment, nice view. Offered at 2.1 million, i put in a cheeky offer of 1.65 and it was accepted.(i didnt buy it btw)

Estate agents need take their head out from their bottoms and advertise /market properties at their realistic value, the current hype is driven in the main by the new breed of salesmen that hardly existed in Dubai 3 years ago.

Arnie, everything you've said qualifies you to have an opinion and nothing more.

If markets and crashes were that easy to predict, people wouldn't fling themselves out of buildings... in fact, there would be no booms and no busts... just a flat line.

But the truth of the matter is, everyone saying things would go down at the start of 2007 were wrong. People saying things will go down in 2008, could be right, or they could be wrong... but only history will be the judge.

Personally, I'm not going to make a prediction because despite my knowledge of economics, my knowledge of markets and my access to reports that most people don't see... I'm not that foolish. And not foolish to the point I think the unpredictability of this market means it's better left alone, or understand entry means the risk may be high.

But with high risk comes high reward... and then it all becomes gambling... which lets face it, that's what speculating is.

If it goes up, it goes up. If it goes down, it goes down.

^ian^ wrote:Arnie, everything you've said qualifies you to have an opinion and nothing more.

If markets and crashes were that easy to predict, people wouldn't fling themselves out of buildings... in fact, there would be no booms and no busts... just a flat line.

But the truth of the matter is, everyone saying things would go down at the start of 2007 were wrong. People saying things will go down in 2008, could be right, or they could be wrong... but only history will be the judge.

Personally, I'm not going to make a prediction because despite my knowledge of economics, my knowledge of markets and my access to reports that most people don't see... I'm not that foolish. And not foolish to the point I think the unpredictability of this market means it's better left alone, or understand entry means the risk may be high.

But with high risk comes high reward... and then it all becomes gambling... which lets face it, that's what speculating is.

If it goes up, it goes up. If it goes down, it goes down.

Sorry Ian i disagree with you. Booms and busts are, in the main easy to predict, the most recent examples are the property markets in Spain, UK and the States.

I accept there is the odd blip like "black monday" which caught the Brits and the Americans by surprise but this is a rareity.

I never wished to insinuate my posts are anything other than my opinion and if i have given the impression otherwise then i apologise.

I do not have a degree in anything, but a degree doesn't give anyone a tool to go on the road of success. Personally i have measured my success by my results. Yep i have made mistakes that have cost me dear i admit, but those mistakes teach you far more than you can learn or achieve in Uni.

Unless you know how many properties will be completed year by year,2008/2009/2010 etc,and you also know how many people will move to Dubai each year then predictions are next to useless.There are other reasons for prices going up besides real estate agents forcing them up.
Lack of construction workers means delayed projects means less supply.Escrow accounts means less developers means less supply.40% of intended projects in dubai have dissapeared.
Increased materials costs means new projects launced at higher prices which drags prices for existing projects upwards.Possible lower interest rates as Dirham pegged to the dollar means more potential buyers.
Dubais prices do not match those of other cities and assuming they come up to speed currently 350/400.000 for a studio is peanuts.
Dubai will become possibly one of the top 5 cities in the world making it a highly desirable place to live meaning more demand.
These huge projects in the pipeline like Waterfront,would they go ahead if the developers thought that prices would crash?
Personally I believe even if there is a price correction ,long term investing in Dubai will be worth it.
Personally,I have had a good offer for a studio of mine and due to financial reasons I will probably except it.If I knew it would shoot up over the next few years then I would keep hold of it but then I dont know how the market will go.No-one does.

From globalpropertyguide today -

The Middle East has low prices...
Because of their early stage of economic development, many Middle Eastern markets' property is still undervalued, leaving room for capital growth.

Property prices in the Middle East are highest in Tel Aviv at around US$5,000 per sq. m., followed by Dubai at around US$4,000 per sq. m.