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Do you guys think Saudi is deliberately going to push oil prices down to financially stress Iran ?

I wouldn't put it past them - they aren't big fans of Iran and hence on this issue they are completely in line with the USA.

However, I don't think the Saudi's were behind the mild (until recently) winter that caused demand to be low

On a different topic - I note that the US is up in arms over China flexing it's military might and destroying a satellite in space. The US is crying foul over the 'militirization' of space. They do this with a straight face even though the US has refused to sign any treaties keep space un-militerized and are seeking to be the only power to dominate space. Sigh.


Cheers,
Shafique

deleted - posted in error.

Oil prices can be manipulated only for a short term,at the long term the suplay and demand will determ the price of oil (and every ather product),saudi arabia is the biggest oil pruducer and can influance the price of oil but i dont think its the case,i think that after 4 years of global expension that one of its indicator was the increase of the oil price (and a lot of commodities like copper and basic material),the next year the global growth expension will be smaller then the privious years and the demand for oil will be smaller,hence its price is going down.

The peaks of thr oil price in the last few years were caused by a huge risk perception and low stocks in many developed economies. The risk of supply is clearer now and stocks are up, so prices will go down anyway, though by no means back to pre-Iraq invasion levels.

I don't think it will be deliberate by Saudi to hurt Iran as they hurt themselves. Some media believe the OPEC countries will look to keep the price as high as they can, they need the liquidity to fuel the economic growth and infrastructure investment. And, more importantly, they like being rich! Of course, were the West hold other countries to ransom there would be uproar on here, price fixing by local countries is entirely acceptable it seems.

shafique wrote:I wouldn't put it past them - they aren't big fans of Iran and hence on this issue they are completely in line with the USA.

As much as Saudi may like to see Iran suffer, they need a high oil price to fund their ever increasing costs, and this is of far greater importance to them.
Anyway, America is doing a good enough job of Iran bashing as it is without Saudi having to join in.

benwj wrote:

shafique wrote:I wouldn't put it past them - they aren't big fans of Iran and hence on this issue they are completely in line with the USA.

As much as Saudi may like to see Iran suffer, they need a high oil price to fund their ever increasing costs, and this is of far greater importance to them.
Anyway, America is doing a good enough job of Iran bashing as it is without Saudi having to join in.

Depends on whether covering costs are more important than keeping the US happy.

Cheers,
Shafique

shafique wrote:
Depends on whether covering costs are more important than keeping the US happy.

Cheers,
Shafique

exactly, last time saudi wanted to keep the US happy (read 1991 gulf war) they incurred so much public debt that they just recently paid off.

MaaaD wrote:

shafique wrote:
Depends on whether covering costs are more important than keeping the US happy.

Cheers,
Shafique

exactly, last time saudi wanted to keep the US happy (read 1991 gulf war) they incurred so much public debt that they just recently paid off.

Nice conspracy theory but way too far fetched for me.

You two have a serious complex about the US if you believe that they can force Saudi to lower the price of oil.

benwj wrote:
Nice conspracy theory but way too far fetched for me.

You two have a serious complex about the US if you believe that they can force Saudi to lower the price of oil.

I note that you imply that the US may want the Saudis to keep the price down by keeping up production against the wishes of the other members of OPEC. You just take exception to our apparent 'complex' which you think means we think the US will 'force Saudi to lower the price of oil'.

Interesting that you have this view despite what Maad and I have written above.

As the saying goes - you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink!

Cheers,
Shafique

shafique wrote:You just take exception to our apparent 'complex' which you think means we think the US will 'force Saudi to lower the price of oil'.Shafique

Shafique,

I didn't take exception to what you and Maad said. I just didn't agree with you.

Yes, Force was probably the wrong word to use. The US can't force 'Saudi' to do anything (Is this what you meant with the horse comment?).

What I meant was, I find it hard to beleive that Saudi would be more interested in keeping the US happy than looking after their own interests.

Influencing oil prices is one thing, but keeping oil prices low to financially stress Iran and keep the US happy is where I draw the line.

benwj wrote:What I meant was, I find it hard to beleive that Saudi would be more interested in keeping the US happy than looking after their own interests.

Influencing oil prices is one thing, but keeping oil prices low to financially stress Iran and keep the US happy is where I draw the line.

Thats not what we were talking about, shafique clearly pointed out that Iran is a common "enemy" to both countries. It is not only a US interest to have a weaker Iran its also Saudi's interest

Anyway, from the first post i was just posing this as a hypothesis and wanted to hear peoples reaction i never claimed this is what is happening ! so relax

on the subject of manipulation of oil prices here is an interesting article:

http://www.tompaine.com/articles/2007/0 ... eserve.php

Another article in today's NYT:

Saudi Officials Seek to Temper the Price of Oil

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/28/business/28oil.html

Extract below:

How much influence the United States has exerted is an open question. Vice President banana Cheney met with King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia in Riyadh in November, but his office would not say if oil was discussed. The White House has been supportive of Saudi energy policy, and President Bush and his father are close with Prince Bandar bin Sultan, the Saudi national security minister and former ambassador to Washington.

Although Saudi officials say their oil policy is based on market considerations and not political ones, the meeting in November led to renewed speculation that the kingdom might be tempted to dry out Iran’s ambitions by pushing oil prices down. Prices have already been falling because of mild weather and slowing demand.

Cheers,
Shafique

The key word being "speculation".

benwj wrote:The key word being "speculation".

Oh, and you thought that Maad and I said we were privy to the hushed conversations between Washington and Riyadh did you?

Cheers,
Shafique

The whole article presents several theories, but I'd read in other media months ago that OPEC wanted to keep oil around 50 bucks this year so it's not like they've suddenly moved it down at the behest of Washington.

shafique wrote:

benwj wrote:The key word being "speculation".

Oh, and you thought that Maad and I said we were privy to the hushed conversations between Washington and Riyadh did you?

Cheers,
Shafique

scot1870 wrote:The whole article presents several theories, but I'd read in other media months ago that OPEC wanted to keep oil around 50 bucks this year so it's not like they've suddenly moved it down at the behest of Washington.

Yes, several theories about why they wish to keep the price down. Interesting that the debate is now about the 'why' and not 'if'.

Cheers,
Shafique