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With everything that's happened/happening in Egypt, Libya, Lebanon, Yemen and so on, do you think there are any repercussions for the UAE? I do see that there have been protests at the Libyan embassy in Dubai as a show of solidarity - fine. Now it seems some are trying to organise more, as a show of solidarity? Or against UAE rulers?

Thoughts?

Depends on how well the rulers are admired by their people.

With strong man dictators such as Saddam Hussein and Nasser, most Arabs/Muslims prefer their authoritarian rule and swift brutality over the decadent West and its human rights, free speech, Western values and separation of church and state.

If this forum is any indication, most Arabs deeply support their rulers, so I don't see protests to topple the ruling class as being very likely.

Well there's no reason to is there.

Don't see it happening, majority of citizens are more than truly happy with the rulers and why wouldn't they be and you can see that in how fondly some talk about them and that is not out of fear but geniune respect even behind closed doors.

I always thought that if there is gonna be an uprising in Dubai at least, it would an Indian one.

Flying Dutchman wrote:I always thought that if there is gonna be an uprising in Dubai at least, it would an Indian one.

Well subcontinent. But yes I agree, but sadly most of those guys couldn't organise a p*ss up in a brewery and would run away at the first sign of trouble.

Chocoholic wrote:With everything that's happened/happening in Egypt, Libya, Lebanon, Yemen and so on, do you think there are any repercussions for the UAE? I do see that there have been protests at the Libyan embassy in Dubai as a show of solidarity - fine. Now it seems some are trying to organise more, as a show of solidarity? Or against UAE rulers?

Thoughts?

Highly unlikely!

The native population is too small, and most are doing fine (well taken care of)

Don't see any reason for them to revolt, actually!

No, there are not enough arabs in Dubai to cause trouble.

benwj wrote:No, there are not enough arabs in Dubai to cause trouble.

There are plenty of Arabs, just not plenty of locals. But hey, they can always buy some.

An Iranian guy once made a rather interesting observation. He said in order to control Arabs, keep them well fed and contented. To control the Persians, keep them hungary and harassed. The UAE will not see any unrest because of these two facts;Small Arab Local population, that is very well looked after. The expats are fragmented, and have no stakes in the game.

However, the troubles in Bahrain is dangerous, since Bahrain is a hop away from Saudi Arabia. Any instability in Saudi is a different ball-game.

The interesting thing in Saudi is that there are tribal divisions and also a sizeable Shia population within the 'native' population. The Shia certainly do not feel 'well fed and contented'.

These issues are brought out in John Bradley's book - Saudi Arabia exposed, which I'm almost finished reading.. gives a fascinating insight into the country.

As for the UAE - I agree that there may not be a critical mass of disgruntled locals who will want change for the unrest to affect the UAE. But who knows - perhaps there will be some pressure for reforms if people power does spread in the region?

Cheers,
Shafique

There won't be any reforms in the UAE. The locals love Sheikh Mohammed and won't have a thing said against him. He looks after his people, and rightly so. The UK could take a leaf out of his book and we Brits would be a whole load better off. And when I say, we Brits, I mean proper ones.

Hey shafique! it's just occured to me! You can't delete my post like you do in Politics, you aren't a mod here! LOL

Chocoholic wrote:

Flying Dutchman wrote:I always thought that if there is gonna be an uprising in Dubai at least, it would an Indian one.

Well subcontinent. But yes I agree, but sadly most of those guys couldn't organise a p*ss up in a brewery and would run away at the first sign of trouble.

100% correct Chocs.

Can you imagine cows grazing on the SZR?

Bethsmum wrote:There won't be any reforms in the UAE. The locals love Sheikh Mohammed and won't have a thing said against him. He looks after his people, and rightly so. The UK could take a leaf out of his book and we Brits would be a whole load better off. And when I say, we Brits, I mean proper ones.

Hey shafique! it's just occured to me! You can't delete my post like you do in Politics, you aren't a mod here! LOL

Do you think there are no locals that aren't looked after? I can tell you factually that there are many poor Emiratis, even stateless ones. This whole misconception that they 'all' get looked after is incorrect.

On a side note. Gaddafi is now threatening to blow up oil pipelines leading to Morocco, which will cause huge problems and chaos.

Mmmm!

If they are stateless then they are not Emiratis.

Doubt any problems will take place in the UAE. The other countries that have experienced problems have a much lower standard of living and also specific discrimination as in Bahrain. While I agree with Akasha/Chocs that not all emirati's are rich they do get looked after better by their government and favoured over other arabs unlike some of these other states. Also emirati's in general are quite lazy - they hardly work - a trip to a government department will prove that. So protesting in the heat - not their cup of tea me thinks.

An interesting topic.

The UAE is an atypical example in the region. The ruling families are revered and therefore unlikely to be the target of any protest and an expatriate rebellion would soon see the planes out of here filled with repatriates. Qatar is similar to the UAE, as is Oman, however the Qaboos family have had their troubles in the past.

An observation on the recent unrest in Bahrain: the images showed many protesters who were seemingly not Bahraini nationals?

There are other states in the region such as Kuwait, where they have also recently had an internal series of protests against their ruling family in an elected parliament without the open marching in the streets. It is Saudi where there is the potential for a disenfranchised majority to create an instability that would shake (sic) the tree of Arab unity. Saudi is the financial powerhouse of the oil economy and the US are obviously worried as the spice must flow and I am sure there are undercurrents of concern rippling around the corridors of power.

It will be interesting to see how it develops.



Knight

Well if Gaddafi makes good on his threat to blow up several oil pipelines then that's obviously going to be a huge problem for people everywhere.

In Saudi though, it's not the Royal family that would be proested against, it's the religious police that have major control and people are sick and tired of them - there's always been contention there.

Bahrain's political problems are quite unique, it is the only country in the world where a 70% Shiite majority is led by a 30% Sunni minority and to add to the religious and political discontent are the Syrians who were introduced by the ruling Sunni's to staff the Police, Civil Defence and Armed Forces, a volatile mix as friends in Bahrain are telling me.

I agree with Dillon's analysis of Bahrain's sectarian set up. I'd also agree with the summing up of the situation in the UAE.

I'd only add that there are other countries in the region where this kind of issue raises similar 'features'. There's Syria where arguably the opposite situation is in effect - the population is majority Sunni, and the Alawite rulers are Shia.

Lebanon's 'confessional' split is probably in a different league of complexity.

But then there is also Saudi Arabia - where Shia do form the majority in the East and a sizeable minority elsewhere, and as I'm reading in 'Saudi Arabia exposed' by Bradley, there's a history of discrimination.

Then there's also Iraq. (Oh and Yemen too, come to think of it..)


However, the more you look the more you see that there are specific country-related issues.

For me it highlights the naivety of those who talk about an 'Arab' this or that - in the same way my eyes roll whenever one talks of 'Africa' in generalities. There is no one 'Arab' mentality, just as there is no one 'Muslim' mentality. There are Arab Christians, Arab Muslims, there are Arabs in Lebanon and Arabs in Sudan.. but I'm glad that this stereotyping is not something the majority of posters here will use.

Cheers,
Shafique

Maybe an oversight Shaf, but there are also Arab Jews.

Actually, on reflection - yes, you're right that was an oversight.

Thanks.

Cheers,
Shafique

I know a man in the states who refers to himself as a Syrian Jew, and there are several in the area where my daughter resides. Definitely Arab, and definitely Jewish. Arab Jews are definitely a small minority, but they exist.

Christians, Muslims, Jews come in all ethnicities.

^I agree - I changed my last post as you were typing your last post.

Good point.

Cheers,
Shafique

From personal experience in Saudi, there is a deeply rooted bigotry to nationals from Yemen even if they are second or even third generation Saudi citizens. Unfortunately there are a high proportion of Saudis of Yemeni descent in lower paid less responsible jobs who could be sufficiently motivated to cause problems. Many police officers are a part of this group, which would mean control of the situation would be down to the military.

Over recent years the religious police (Mutawa) have had their self appointed powers drastically reduced by the King and there is growing resentment amongst the more radical fervent members who crave that control once more as it constitutes a severe 'loss of face'. The average Joe in the street hates their influence as much as the rulers realise the damage they have caused to internal and external affairs, however there are rural areas where they are perfectly capable of whipping up unrest on the back of extremist fervour.

Watching with interest.



Knight

Well believe it or not things are now kicking off in Oman of all places! Complete mess over there, with two dead already during protests.

Rumours are RAK is becoming unsettled as well, but that's due to son number one, who was ousted as successor, in favour of his younger brother coming back and causing trouble.

I foresee many challenges for the desert rulers, may god be with them

zubber wrote:I foresee many challenges for the desert rulers, may god be with them

It looks like its going to be the "desert rulers" and god on one side, and everybody else on the other!
Bahrain going up in flames on one side, and Oman and Yemen on the other, and Saudi and the UAE in the middle. I have my fears, the whole region is slowly going down like dominos.

All the Arabs claim their descent from Yemen, so basically they consider themselves as one people whether they are Iraqi or Jordanian or Saudi. Its a cultural and linguistic affinity. Religion comes later. Couple that with the brutality with which they have been subjugated, and the boiling anger is just beginning to surface.

Chocoholic wrote:

Flying Dutchman wrote:I always thought that if there is gonna be an uprising in Dubai at least, it would an Indian one.

Well subcontinent. But yes I agree, but sadly most of those guys couldn't organise a p*ss up in a brewery and would run away at the first sign of trouble.

You know FD's got a valid point there. Ultimately it is a game of numbers.
Anyways Indians and people from the subcontinent in general care about only one thing and that's their jobs. So it is in their best interests not to be part of any trouble.

http://www.tehelka.com/story_main48.asp ... AHRAIN.asp

Despite all the media hype and allegations of exploitation, poor living conditions and subjugation, I firmly believe the blue collar working classes, here in Dubai and the wider UAE are generally happy, well fed, enjoy better living conditions, benefit from superior medical care and earn considerably more wages than they would, if they could find employment, in their home Countries. There are of course isolated cases of discontent, industrial dispute but nothing on the scale that would be required for any semblance of an uprising! These people are on contract to work here in the UAE they have no social or political rights whatsoever, just like any other expatriate worker.

Regards