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People have gone to polls on Friday to cast their ballots in Iran's 10th presidential election, which is expected to bring political shift in Tehran with the victory of a reformist.

It's a polarized Iran. A battle between the Conservative Hardliners and the Reformists.

In what is expected to be one of the most closely-fought votes in Iranian history, Mr Ahmadinejad faces a neck-and-neck race with Mir-Hossein Mousavi, a reformist rival critical of his economic record and aggressive foreign policy

In the close battle analysts doubt that any single candidate will get a 50% majority.

If no clear victor emerges in Friday's vote, it will go to a second round a week later between the two front-runners.

In exchanges highlighting the mistrust between the factions, the rival conservative and reformist camps have both accused of each other of planning to rig the vote counts.

Officials representing both Mr Mousavi and Mr Karoubi have written to the country's election supervisory body expressing concern about results being manipulated.

So the question is what path will Iran's electorate walk down?
This is the day and age for reformist governments, Obama in America, Congress in India, Israel though went the other way with fundamentalist Benjamin, so what will prevail in Iran? My bet is that it will be a reformist government.

So as outside observers lets all sit back and enjoy the spectacle that's gonna be headline news for long time to come.

In my view, the world is developing for the better in that region.

I think that if reformists will take the lead, that Iran will lose its 'loner status' pretty soon and Iran will flourish once again.

Change is coming

The Lebanese electoral results which shunted out Hezbollah pretty much highlights the fact that the people of the region want stability, freedom, good relations with the west and above all peace.

Misery Called Life wrote:The Lebanese electoral results which shunted out Hezbollah pretty much highlights the fact that the people of the region want stability, freedom, good relations with the west and above all peace.

I guess the black person Obama, does have a substantial influence in peoples crocket mindsets.

If Obama was white, he would be just another Westerner on the lookout for influence and power.

At least thats the most common word I hear from the Middle East.

Bulls eye! Crooked Mindsets indeed!

What works with Obama is simply the fact that most people can relate to him. We think it's so because he's Black. I beg to differ.
I would'nt deny that part of his aura stems from the fact that he is colored. And even in today's world there are perceptions related to the color of one's skin. This is more so in Asia then anywhere else. But color can only take you this far. The man is simply brilliant. He has charmed everyone. The simplicity in his speeches. He is a man we all can relate to. He has just invaded our mindspace....
I guess people here relate to him for a variety of reasons, his past, the fact that he is not white( I reiterate not because he's African American simply cos he a non white) and well he is a brilliant orator who has the media on his side....that has been the most decisive factor in Obama's march forward.
Obama mania has swept the Middle East. His victory, his speech in Cairo has all definitely played a role in Lebanon and will probably play a role in Iran as well!

Well, the results are in, it's a landslide. What do you make of it now?

I couldn't figure out how they said a large voter turnout would favour the reformists, because I heard that the conservatives have their support mainly in the grassroots, and surely that's where the majority of the voters are? Or not?

Hmmm....
As far as grass roots are concerned Moussavi is an ex-president and on record his economic performance could be deemed as successful.
The one thing that could have worked in favor of Ahmadinejad was the support of the Revolutionary guards.

The incumbency factor may have played a role in this outcome.
Nevertheless the individual campaigns, clearly depict that society in Iran is deeply polarized. History has proven when the electorate is polarized it's normally the incumbent that benefits.

Rigging? International Observers have said that this election was pretty much fair. So I guess tahts ruled out.

In his favor, Ahmadinejad is a man of the masses. Uncorruptable and a person with conviction who is steadfast in his beliefs - rare virtues in politicos today.

As Ahmadinejad has said on his own blog:-

"Whatever people have said against me, I don't mind," he wrote 10 days ago in his most recent post. "I just want to be a servant to the people."

Moussavi is the man you are always suspicious of. A man who made billions siphoning public funds, a man who is capable of anything to further his own interests. He would have stood a better chance in Lebanon!

COULD MOUSAVI CHALLENGE OUTCOME?

By declaring victory at a hastily organized news conference before the election commission announced its early counts, Mousavi signaled he would not accept defeat quietly.

But it is unclear exactly how he could challenge the official result or if any complaint could succeed.

If Mousavi pursues his accusations of irregularities, such as a shortage of ballot papers and many people being denied a chance to vote -- he may enjoy support from influential allies.

They include reformist former President Mohammad Khatami and powerful cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president who traded accusations with Ahmadinejad during the campaign.

But Ahmadinejad has basked in the support of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, throughout his presidency.

STREET POLITICS

A key issue will be how Mousavi's supporters -- who thronged Tehran's streets in the run-up to the vote -- react.

Police say they have beefed up security across the capital to prevent any unrest. All gatherings have been banned until the publication of final results later on Saturday.

In an early sign of post-election tension, police broke up a crowd of several hundred Mousavi supporters in a Tehran square early on Saturday, a Reuters witness said.

On the eve of the election, a senior official of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards accused Mousavi's camp of seeking a "velvet revolution" in Iran, referring to the tag given to the non-violent revolution in communist Czechoslovakia in 1989.

The official, Yadollah Janavi, made clear the Guards would not tolerate any such attempt. Ahmadinejad is a former Guardsman who took part in the 1980-88 war with Iraq. The force is seen as fiercely loyal to the values of the 1979 Islamic revolution.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/ ... CS20090613

Misery Called Life wrote:The Lebanese electoral results which shunted out Hezbollah pretty much highlights the fact that the people of the region want stability, freedom, good relations with the west and above all peace.

West is best! but we want you to stay the way they are so we can look down on them

crusader 1 wrote:

Misery Called Life wrote:The Lebanese electoral results which shunted out Hezbollah pretty much highlights the fact that the people of the region want stability, freedom, good relations with the west and above all peace.

West is best! but we want you to stay the way they are so we can look down on them

The crusades were fought a long time ago. Times have changed since then. Grow Up!

^^^+1

Did you guys see what currently happens in Iran ?

Millions of voters are protesting in the streets in major cities like Teheran against Ahmadinejad.

This weekend there were riots where the secret service was clashing with protestors and there are numerous dead and wounded.
Internet and TV are limited and mobile communication is nearly impossible after government imposed shutdowns.

Currently the situation has changed in a way that the police and government entities are allowing the massive protests, since people are conquering their fear against the regime. Their numbers are growing by day all in favor for Mousavi.

Western reporter visa's are being revoked and requested to leave the country. Camera's and film material of our Dutch reporter crews were confiscated, but alot of video material has been transferred out of the country. We (on Dutch TV) see secret police hitting Iranian civillians like crazy. Blood on the streets.

Change is coming....?

I spoke to a few Irani asquintances yesterday. They told me that Ahmadi has some support but the proportion is definitely not so drastical. If the proportion of votes had been like 52% and 45% to Ahmadi nobody would have rebeled against him but government was afreid of run-off and manipulated votes so roughly.
By the way urban population of Iran is 60% with only Tehran metro area 14 millions. They are more flexible in their political preferences than peasants.
There is also a big Azeri minority that accounts for 25% of all inhabitance. They traditionally vote against candidate from a party of power.

On the hand these Irani guys don’t believe in velvet or orange scenario.

Oh I thought it was the other way round. I was under the impression that the rural population out numbered the urban populace.

Even prior to the electionsn the Revolutionary guards were openly supporting Ahmandnijad and warning Maussavi against carrying out reforms. That has led to suspicions that the vote could have been rigged.