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Huff post has an intersting piece on possible scenarios for the end of the American Empire. As stated elsewhere, I'm not sure that we'll end this decade with the US still on top.. but who knows?

What do you think?:

The Decline and Fall of the American Empire
12.06.2010 | Huffington Post

Four Scenarios for the End of the American Century by 2025
By Alfred W. McCoy

A soft landing for America 40 years from now? Don’t bet on it. The demise of the United States as the global superpower could come far more quickly than anyone imagines. If Washington is dreaming of 2040 or 2050 as the end of the American Century, a more realistic assessment of domestic and global trends suggests that in 2025, just 15 years from now, it could all be over except for the shouting.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alfred-w- ... 92570.html

These predictions are just as reliable as the weather forecast.

^Do you mean - they are accurate and based on empirical evidence, computer models and an established branch of science...when carried out by experts - or in the general sense, you can't predict the weather.

I like the scenario of WWIII which results in no deaths - now, that would be a result!

Cheers,
Shafique

All what u have stated couldnt predict something as significant and catastrophic as the economic meltdown, The credibility of these so called systems has gone down the drain.

Actually, you'll find that Roubini, Stiglitz and others did indeed predict that the economic meltdown. Roubini in particular was clear about the cause and effect.

The timing is always hard to predict - but the consequences of fundamental actions are pretty well known.

Anyway - the reason that 4 scenarios are given is precisely because the future is not known (and the author does say these aren't the only 4 possible scenarios).

Looking back at history - Britain was in denial that its power had faded when it launched Suez, and even further back, the same applies when the Athenians launched the attack against Sicily - hindsight is a wonderful thing!

Cheers,
Shafique

See what i dont get is , even if there were good educated guesses made, then why are actions not being taken ? Clearly something is not right here , perhaps the evidence presented is not substantial enough to persuade action, infact think tanks have predicted many things in many countries, but yet no one takes any action.

As you have rightly pointed out, predictions are predictions and no amount of statistical factoring or probability analysis could replace the actual event taking place

The author does address this question zubber - drawing on history as to why other empires acted as they did when it was bleedingly obvious (in hindsight, and at the time too to some) that the actions were follies that would hasten the decline.

In a nutshell, I'd summarise it as human nature - you can't predict how long people will just believe something is true when in reality it isn't. This is at the centre of every economic bubble - from Dubai's property bubble to the current economic crisis. Many people were in denial that Dubai was going through a property bubble - others had an opposing view and predicted a crash. I didn't get the timing of the crash right - but just knew that the fundamentals indicated that one was coming, and the longer it didn't happen, the bigger the crash would be.

The article does not predict what scenario will happen, but rather gives 4 scenarios with explanations and linkages for each.

What's interesting is that it is difficult to imagine (yes, even imagine) a scenario where America is not overtaken by China etc.

Cheers,
Shafique