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Curious to know your predictions: Will the Syrian rebels manage to overthrow the Asad government without foreign military intervention? What do you think would happen in the aftermath - a sectarian style insurgency?

On the other hand, will the Syrian government end the revolt and stay in power?

I personally believe the Syrian government can/could defeat the Syrian opposition. The biggest obstacles the government faces seems like poor leadership and even worse morale/loyalty/ability among the soldiers. I was reading today about insurgents along the Lebanon/Syrian border saying the only fighters they fear in Syria are those that belong to Hezbollah:

http://news.yahoo.com/accusations-mount ... 56690.html

The revolt is also very sectarian. Predominantly Sunni Kurdish neighborhoods in Aleppo and elsewhere are now under attack by Sunni Arab insurgents. I can't help but think how the conflict will turn into an Iraq with bloody massacres and terrorist attacks by a Sunni Arab insurgency. The only difference is that Sunni Arabs in Syria form something around 65% of Syria's population compared to 25% in Iraq. They have a numerical ability to inflict massacres even greater than their Iraqi insurgent counterparts.

Iran has recently admitted they have military advisors on the ground. Beside the admission, there have been long running claims elite Iranian military units are actively involved in the counter-insurgency (and even Yemeni!).

The bumbling on the part of the Syrian military is really inexcusable. Every day is news of a defended Syrian base, checkpoint or even town being overrun by insurgents while loyalist troops backed by artillery, mortar, helicopter gunship and armor are unable to take simple neighborhoods after months of fighting. At this point, the soldiers who have wanted to defect already have; this is a matter of incompetence on the Syrian military's part.

By now, most analysts agree Syria is effectively in a stalemate with neither side being able to decisively defeat the other any time soon. That said, I personally believe the Syrian government is capable of winning: they have the hardware, numbers and strong support among minority ethnic/religious groups. If Syrian soldiers had the training and, most importantly, fortitude of the Iranians, Iraqis (under Saddam) or Turks, the conflict would have been over by now.

I think Bashar will be able to keep central power in Damascus, while the rest of the country will be divided and controlled according to ethic/religous groups. It will be a long war of attrition.

Contrary to Libya, Tunesia and Egypt the Syrian civil war/uprising has more layers to it. The first one is the one is the Arab spring, democracy against dictatorship. It might be that it started that way, but it isnot anymore. Next to that some proxy wars are being fought in Syria. Sunni against Shia and Iran against Turkey and the Arabian Peninsula, which places the USA at the same side of the sunni al-qaida. :-/ in this conflict.

Do you think he'll lose Aleppo? Right now, the Sunni heartland of the country (entire provinces) are under rebel control (somehat like the Taliban in Afghanistan). But I don't think rural areas under rebel control is a militarily significant disadvantage like the major cities for Asad.

rayznack wrote:Do you think he'll lose Aleppo?

I think so, yes. The importance of Aleppo is overestimated IMO. His father based his rule on a big part on the support he got from Aleppo. With using brute force shown the last months, the support of merchants is not a necessaity, like we see right now also in Iran.

Sooner or later the Assad regime will fall. Their days are numbered now. Not sure what Assad is thinking but in the end his fate will most likley not be any better than how Gaddafi was killed.

long live bashar

bigboss wrote:long live bashar

It's possible. My feeling is that, as long as foreign nations don't intervene, the Syrian government will defeat the rebels.

But who knows?