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There seems so much doom and gloom, and yes the figures do speak for themselves, but - is there a positive future for dubai?

Do you think we will all be amazed how Dubai 2.0 will turn out?

Maybe it really will become a truly workable service hub and a tourist destination that exceeds all expectations?

Hopefully the last two nasty years have removed the fat off the city?

What are your genuine future predictions for this city?

THANKS!

As much as we'd all like to answer that question the spoke here is that we simply do not have enough information to accurately asess the situation.

Now a governmnent entity not paying off it's debt send a very bad message out.

Without getting into details ummm heres my perspective, based purely on what I've read in publications and not taking into account the situation on the ground.

An important question,
Is it feasable for this place to remain tax free?

If you work in Dubai namely in the real estate or banking or civil works sectors you might have noticed drops in salaries, increase in sackings etc. Unless there is a return of cashflow, ie investors buying, growth will not take place. For growth to take place banks need to lend and that's not happening at the moment.

Investors are risk averse, ratings have dropped and CDS premiums have actually overtaken Iceland (rubbish if you ask me).

So with the non performance of the real estate sector we can all go back to the basics. Remember 1980 Dubai made it's name mainly as a trading hub? That will be the consolidation phase and gradually from there on the economy will pick up again in due time off course.

All that speculation about a crash is dumbfounded. Dubai is still an attractive destination, a great place to work only difference being the glitziness of the past two decades might scale down.

Dubai might go back to the basics focus on trading, hospitality, tighter laws and better corporate governance. On the flip side the infrastructure is very much in place. Just play it out and rebuild consumer confidence once again.
Attracting and nuturing talent will also be crucial.
In the interim yes, expect a little pain, but I'm certain if you play ur cards right, and if Dubai can mantain some semblance of stability (where laws are firm and never changing, political stability etc) some decent investment opportunities might come up in the near future.
Guess no-one is yet making a move everyone is just waiting and watching.........

I basically agree with MCL.

Of course Dubai will find a better and sustainable route for prosperity. But the coming years are going to be hard. And all eyes are focussed on its leadership, Sheikh Mohammed, who has to come up with a plan to restructure Dubai and set out some basic guidelines for its direction and adapting their legal system to a more transparant one.

The current one is flawed and they should know it. Time will tell.

Now a governmnent entity not paying off it's debt send a very bad message out.

I completey agree

An important question,
Is it feasable for this place to remain tax free?

A very good question and perhaps an income tax of 5% might not be a bad thing or do you think that that would send who is left packing? If there was a sense that you were receiving something in return then a 5% tax might be a good thing......?

That will be the consolidation phase and gradually from there on the economy will pick up again in due time off course.

All that speculation about a crash is dumbfounded. Dubai is still an attractive destination, a great place to work only difference being the glitziness of the past two decades might scale down.

GOOD TO HEAR SOME POSITIVE NEWS FROM SOMEONE WHO KNOWS DUBAI

Dubai might go back to the basics focus on trading, hospitality, tighter laws and better corporate governance. On the flip side the infrastructure is very much in place. Just play it out and rebuild consumer confidence once again.

GOOD - I agree. Time to reflect and work out what it is that Dubai is. Sell off some assets and focus on core capabilities. The infrastructure is very much in place - so that IS good news. As long as the region remains safe and fun and keeps clean from crime, drugs and terrorism then Dubai I am sure will bounce back in 2-6 years.

Attracting and nuturing talent will also be crucial.

I couldnt agree anymore. This is vital. New industries and cottage industries with tax breaks are absolutely vital.

In the interim yes, expect a little pain, but I'm certain if you play ur cards right, and if Dubai can mantain some semblance of stability (where laws are firm and never changing, political stability etc) some decent investment opportunities might come up in the near future.

GOOD GOOD GOOD. I agree.

Guess no-one is yet making a move everyone is just waiting and watching.........

I know. I think that Abu Dhabi must come assist Dubai with these loans on condition of a clean-up in politics and economocs. My hunch, which is completely unqualified, is that Abu Dhabi always was and will help Dubai, but on some strict conditions. Firstly, that Dubai as an emirate becomes more conservative with its approach to hedonistic approach. Also to repay the debt perhaps Dubai must sell off and slim down on projects.

The long term view I am sure will be positive. The completed projects that are being occupied and have evolved into communities will remain and prosper. The half built projects, unfortunately, might simply become sunk costs and will remain as bad debt with all the suffering that that brings and be pulled down. Dubai clearly needs a long chat infront of the mirror with an understanding that the future can only be built on transparency and solid fundamentals. Dubai should remain a trading port and continue to expand in tourism, property etc as it has done - but within reachable targets.

Just my two cents.

IMHO:

Dubai was implementing a pure capitalist system with you regard to social responsibility and it was prevailing that expats are here to work only and since they don't pay taxes they don't have the right to ask for any thing more than what they're given.

I believe in capitalism and free trade but NGOs has to play a role and some effort has to be made to assist people: The most sustainable asset as we may all have noticed. Especially on a situation where exapats are the most consumers. What made the situation worse than it could have been was that a lot of people has run away with whatever left of their wealth and hence that accelerated job losses on service industries. I also know many investors who got back stabbed and that also have left a remarkable gap.

You cannot only rely on banking and financial services, especially when banks here lack competitiveness on both retail and corporate level. Dubai will catch up on the next few years and instead of basing economy on lending another alternative has to be addressed. Lenders will not help and will only fight for their money.

Some systems are being considered like Venture Capital and I'm sure that the Government is doing its best to repay the debts and also they should help out small businesses to create more jobs and to get the engines back to speed.

Misery Called Life wrote:As much as we'd all like to answer that question the spoke here is that we simply do not have enough information to accurately asess the situation.

Now a governmnent entity not paying off it's debt send a very bad message out.

Without getting into details ummm heres my perspective, based purely on what I've read in publications and not taking into account the situation on the ground.

An important question,
Is it feasable for this place to remain tax free?

If you work in Dubai namely in the real estate or banking or civil works sectors you might have noticed drops in salaries, increase in sackings etc. Unless there is a return of cashflow, ie investors buying, growth will not take place. For growth to take place banks need to lend and that's not happening at the moment.

Investors are risk averse, ratings have dropped and CDS premiums have actually overtaken Iceland (rubbish if you ask me).

So with the non performance of the real estate sector we can all go back to the basics. Remember 1980 Dubai made it's name mainly as a trading hub? That will be the consolidation phase and gradually from there on the economy will pick up again in due time off course.

All that speculation about a crash is dumbfounded. Dubai is still an attractive destination, a great place to work only difference being the glitziness of the past two decades might scale down.

Dubai might go back to the basics focus on trading, hospitality, tighter laws and better corporate governance. On the flip side the infrastructure is very much in place. Just play it out and rebuild consumer confidence once again.
Attracting and nuturing talent will also be crucial.
In the interim yes, expect a little pain, but I'm certain if you play ur cards right, and if Dubai can mantain some semblance of stability (where laws are firm and never changing, political stability etc) some decent investment opportunities might come up in the near future.
Guess no-one is yet making a move everyone is just waiting and watching.........

Good perspective on how things currently stand!

Dubai will surely not go away or become a ghostown, but the road ahead will be very bumpy and uncomfortable!

The past ambitions to be the best, the biggest, the tallest, and to be No.1 at everything, were totally unrealistic!

Now Dubai has to clean house, and try to re-invent itself!!

Will it succeed??

Time will tell!!