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EUR USD
EUR/USD’s consolidation from 1.2357 continued last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 1.2613 minor resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2357 will target 61.8% projection of 1.3700 to 1.2500 from 1.2886 at 1.2144. However, break of 1.2357 will indicate short term bottoming with bullish convergence condition in daily MACD. In such case, strong rebound should be seen to 1.2886 resistance.
In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress. And break of 1.2042 will likely pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209. Before that, EUR/USD would continue to engage in sideway trading between 1.1875 and 1.5143 in medium term.
GBP USD
GBP/USD’s decline from 1.7190 extended to as low as 1.5592 last week and took out 61.8% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.5721. Initial bias remains on the downside this week. Further fall should be seen to 100% projection of 1.7190 to 1.6051 from 1.6523 at 1.5384 next. On the upside, above 1.5789 minor resistance will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations before staging another decline.
In the longer term picture, we’re sticking on to the view that price actions from 1.3503 are the fourth wave of the five wave sequence from 2.1161. That means, firstly, 1.3503 shouldn’t be the end point of the downtrend yet and a new low is expected. However, secondly, as the next fall could be the fifth wave, the breach of 1.3503 could be shallow and brief from long term point of view and we’ll then see a more sustainable rebound.
USD JPY
USD/JPY’s up trend continued last week and reached as high as 116.82. Further rally is expected this week to 161.8% projection of 101.08 to 110.08 from 105.19 at 119.75 next. On the downside, break of 113.85 support is needed to indicate short term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish in case of retreat.
In the long term picture, the strong impulsive look of the rally from 75.56 suggests that USD/JPY is now in a long term up trend. Based on current momentum, such rally should at least take out 61.8% retracement of 147.68 to 75.56 at 120.13 and have a test on 124.13 resistance.
USD CHF
USD/CHF’s consolidation from 0.9741 extended last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. As long as 0.9559 minor support intact, further rally is still expected. Above 0.9741 will extend the whole rise from 0.8698 to 0.9838/9971 key resistance zone. Nonetheless, break of 0.9559 will argue that a short term top is in place at 0.9741, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. In such case, deeper pull back would be seen to 0.9359 support and below.
In the longer term picture, we’d maintain that price actions from 0.9971 are corrective in nature. That is, the up trend from 0.7065 should resume after finishing the correction. And, note that break of 0.9971 will also have 55 months EMA firmly taken out and would be a strong indication of completion of the down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). In that case, USD/CHF should at least have a take of 1.1288 cluster resistance (38.2 % retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1358).
http://www.commexfx.com/weekly-outlook-17-11-2014/