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EUR USD
EUR/USD’s fall extended to as low as 1.2357 last week but formed a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. But upside of rebound should be limited well below 1.2886 resistance and bring fall resumption. Below 1.2357 will target 61.8% projection of 1.3700 to 1.2500 from 1.2886 at 1.2144.
In the long term picture, EUR/USD turned into a long term consolidation pattern since reaching 1.6039 in 2008. Such consolidation is still in progress. And break of 1.2042 will likely pave the way to 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209. Before that, EUR/USD would continue to engage in sideway trading between 1.1875 and 1.5143 in medium term.
GBP USD
GBP/JPY’s fall from 1.7190 extended last week and reached as low as 1.5789. Initial bias remains on the downside for further decline to 61.8% retracement of 1.4813 to 1.7190 at 1.5721 next. Sustained break will pave the way to 1.4813 key support level. On the upside, above 1.5926 minor resistance will bring recovery. But near term outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6184 resistance holds and deeper fall is expected.
In the longer term picture, we’re sticking on to the view that price actions from 1.3503 are the fourth wave of the five wave sequence from 2.1161. That means, firstly, 1.3503 shouldn’t be the end point of the downtrend yet and a new low is expected. However, secondly, as the next fall could be the fifth wave, the breach of 1.3503 could be shallow and brief from long term point of view and we’ll then see a more sustainable rebound.
USD JPY
USD/JPY rose to 115.57 last week as recent up trend continued. A temporary top is formed there and consolidations would be seen initially this week first. But downside of pull back should be contained by 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 112.48) and bring another rise. Above 115.57 will target 161.8% projection of 101.08 to 110.08 from 105.19 at 119.75 next.
In the long term picture, the strong impulsive look of the rally from 75.56 suggests that USD/JPY is now in a long term up trend. Based on current momentum, such rally should at least take out 61.8% retracement of 147.68 to 75.56 at 120.13 and have a test on 124.13 resistance.
USD CHF
USD/CHF’s rally from 0.8698 resumed last week and reached as high as 0.9741. A temporary top is in place and initial bias is neutral this week first. Some consolidations would be seen but downside of retreat should be contained well above 0.9359 support and bring another rally. Above 0.9741 will target 0.9838/9971 key resistance zone.
In the longer term picture, we’d maintain that price actions from 0.9971 are corrective in nature. That is, the up trend from 0.7065 should resume after finishing the correction. And, note that break of 0.9971 will also have 55 months EMA firmly taken out and would be a strong indication of completion of the down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). In that case, USD/CHF should at least have a take of 1.1288 cluster resistance (38.2 % retracement of 1.8305 to 0.7065 at 1.1358).
http://www.commexfx.com/weekly-outlook-10-11-2014/